The Bills remain on the verge of greatness, but a volatile off-season saw years of established leadership leave One Bills Drive. Brandon Beane has done a masterful job in managing an impossible cap situation and plugging many of the holes in free agency created by the necessary cost cutting moves, but now the focus needs to be on the draft to find the missing ingredients to finally bring a championship to Western New York.
A recent, Go Long article that compared the Bill Polian Colts to the current Bills team to see if there were lessons learned to bust through and win a championship, like Polian's Colts finally did in 2006. “We always wanted to remain explosive,” Polian says. “Peyton and Brady were in a class by themselves. You don’t want to rob them of weaponry, so you had to always be conscious adding to that.” Mahomes and Josh Allen are the Peyton and Brady of today, and this advice is critical to not only maintain the level of success, but to win a championship.
An NFL team can't have enough blue collar tough grunts in the trenches, but when you have a unicorn like Josh Allen, you need to surround him with the weapons needed for him to soar. The grunts are better when they come with a significant chip on their shoulder. You want them to stay mean and nasty, and not fat and lazy living off that 1st round money and reputation. The Bills need to find an explosive play-maker in the first round to add to the arsenal. Yes, this year's class of WRs is deep, but it's not a slam dunk there will be a top tier WR available at 60. In PFWR's latest 3 round mock, 12 WRs go in the top 59 picks, before the Bills 2nd round selection. While there may still be gems to be found even after the top 12, they get significantly harder to find as you work your way down that list . Is WR 12 or 13 really what the Bills need to add an impact, dynamic weapon for Josh Allen to go to war with Patrick Mahomes, and expect a different outcome, even if they hit at interior offensive line or a rotational defensive tackle? To quote the Dunne article, "The Bills Super Bowl window isn't closed, but it isn't going to open itself." The Bills need to kick through it. A dynamic WR not only helps the now, it also prepares for life after Stefon Diggs.
So, while grunts like Jackson Powers-Johnson and Graham Barton would be wise investments in the offensive line, as previous stated, its never a bad move to fill your team with glass eaters, but I prefer mine with a chip on their shoulder that comes from the day two or three lineman. The Bills have gone the veteran o-line or day 2/3 round route throughout Beane's tenure, and I think that mostly continues. I like the talent that should still be available early day 3.
On the other side of the ball, finding a long term 1 tech to groom behind DaQuan Jones makes sense, but now that Austin Johnson is on board, hard to imagine another 1 tech makes sense to select at 28 given the relative low number of reps that will be available. Johnny Newton and Byron Murphy are options, given their versatility and play making ability at either 3 tech or 1 Tech, however, again, with the significant long term investment in Ed Oliver, both the short and long term gain of adding either to the roster, is diminished, as much as they would provide valued depth. However, is valued depth or a rotational D lineman going to be that difference maker to burst through that window? The Bills also have an immediate need at Safety, but McDermott's system makes that position both critical, but one that doesn't necessarily require a high draft pick or expensive free agent veteran. That is the beauty of the simplicity of the system, find a smart, talented player with leadership ability, and you can fill that spot. Add to the fact, no Safety in this class warrants a first round selection. Bills are set at starters everywhere else both long and short term, except at Defensive Edge. The hope is that Greg Rousseau continues his upward climb and Von Miller returns to form and AJ Epenesa takes that next step and takes a strangle hold on being the heir apparent to Von. Add to that, this class is one of the weaker Edge classes up top than in recent years. Maybe if a Chop Robinson or Laiatu Latu, who we have ranked very highly, is there, that could fit the definition of potential impact play maker to consider, especially for the long term, but both will likely be gone, and both would be relegated to being rotational/situational pieces in the near future. Again, they would provide valuable depth and pieces to build around for the future, but would either be that missing piece right here, right now?
In a dare to be great move, the Bills should target a dynamic, explosive, play making Receiver who tilts the field. The boxes the Bills look to check are is he a separator, can he stretch the field, can he be relied upon to catch the ball, is he versatile enough to run multiple routes from multiple positions, will he at least be a willing blocker downfield, can he consistently add yards after the catch and make explosive chunk plays that make defenses quake when trying figure out how to stop him and the cast of other weapons on the field at the same time, including Josh Allen and does he have the character and commitment of someone who loves the game of football and will work relentlessly to be great. Luckily, this class of WR's has multiple ones that check most, if not all those boxes.
For this Bills mock, we do not make trades and we assume Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr are off the board. That leaves the decision to be between, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin, Adonai Mitchell and Malachi Corley. Those six prospects can be split down the middle in body types, with thin speedsters in Worthy, McConkey and Franklin, and big body targets in Legette, Mitchell and Corley. The three big bodies check many of the boxes, including deep threats, that make contested catches. However, only Corley can be considered versatile and has any RAC ability. While Corley ranked at the top of the charts in run after catch production, Legette and Mitchell sat at the bottom. For the speedsters, Worthy led the pack, only behind Corley, with McConkey close behind. Franklin was middle of the pack, disappointing given his speed. With YAC being such a high priority as stated by Brandon Beane, and for other reasons to knock Mitchell down being how often he takes plays off when not targeted, lets reduce the list to the three at or very near the top of the YAC chart below, Corley, Worthy and McConkey.
Let's also check the versatility box for all three. Corley lines up everywhere, even in the backfield, and both Worthy and McConkey line up inside or in the slot and run the full route tree, being used on screens and jet sweeps, inside and outside, deep, short and middle of the field. Now given the weight differential, you may think that disqualifies Worthy as a blocker, but that couldn't be the farthest from the truth when watching closely. Here is but one example, that not only demonstrates blocking ability, but also shows how much it means to him. This is not just a track star, this kid is a tough Texas football player.
All three of these prospects, play the game with passion that jumps off the screen. The commitment and dedication to their craft is evident in the refinement of their route running, their blocking technique. All three would be great picks, but watch how Worthy celebrates his block in the link above. How do you measure competitiveness? Watch how he celebrates a big play or touchdown. It's sheer exuberance, not an orchestrated choreographed look at me dance. In an era where top prospects choose not to work out at the combine, a smart calculated move for many, but when Worthy not only runs an amazing first 40 time, he decides to run again to get the record, and then literally runs out of the building when he does break it, that speaks to his competitiveness. That's a champions mentality. That is the kind of joy of the game and spirit of competition the Bills need to add, to help replace the leadership lost when the veterans were let go. Finding someone who can replace the sheer joy and energy that a Tre'Davious White brought to the locker room has to be considered when drafting players they hope will be leaders down the road. I believe adding Xavier Worthy is a damn good start.
At 5' 11" 165lb, durability has to be a concern. However, in 3 years, he had two reported injuries, a broken hand that he played through the latter part of his Junior year, and a sprained ankle he got in the final game before the playoffs that he, again, played through. The fact those where the only injuries he sustained despite touching the ball over 244 times the past 3 seasons including 75 receptions & 22 pun returns this year. He has never missed a start. That speaks to not only his durability but his toughness. It's not the size of the dog in a fight, it’s the size of fight in the dog. He would add an explosive play making element to the Bills attack that will cause Defensive coordinators fits, considering all the other Bills weapons they already have to contend with. Worthy would stretch the field both vertically and horizontally, it wouldn't even be about the number of touches he gets, but how he would cause teams to have to keep honest, even when the Bills are in 12 personnel. Josh would be salivating at the possibilities with an arsenal that includes Cook, Kincaid, Diggs, Samuel and Worthy. Now, go no huddle and watch teams scramble to pick their poison.
Round 1 | PFWR 2024 NFL Mock Draft |
28 | Xavier Worthy WR |
Texas | Ht: 5112 Wt: 165 40: 4.21 RAS: 9.34 |
💥Explosive 🤏Undersized 🐇Quick Twitch 🐆Speed to Burn ⤴Elite Route Runner 🐶Has that Dog inside 🧮RAC King 🃏Versatile 🐊 Body Catch 🐃Buffalo Bills Fit/ Outside deep threat that will stretch the field and also tough enough to take advantage and work underneath. Major impact potential |
Having added an electric play maker, the Bills should turn their attention to the defense and the trenches. There should be some options for the defensive line at pick 60 that will fill an immediate rotational value, while they cut their teeth to eventually take on a bigger role down the road. I would not rule out either a 3 tech or 1 tech here, but again, the Bills value versatility. Adding a key member and leader of the national champion Wolverines, who has NFL bloodlines, in Kris Jenkins would be a home run. He is the type of tough, lineman, that plays with a mean streak and might have a chip on his shoulder he fell this far. Perfect, keep him hungry. If somehow Braden Fiske dropped, he would also be an excellent fit that offers the flexibility to slot into either DT spot. Another of my favorite prospects to watch, who I comp to Po, the Kung Fu Panda, is TaVondre Sweat. He may not pass the commitment part of the Bills check list, but he certainly passes the planet theory test. There simply aren't that many men walking the planet with his size, strength, and relative athleticism. If somehow, a coaching staff could motivate him, he could be an all world player. However, the pick here is Jenkins. You can never add too many champions to your roster.
2 | Kris Jenkins DT |
60 | Ht: 6026 Wt: 299 40: 4.91 RAS: 8.94 |
Michigan | 🃏Versatile 🦏Powerful 👋Uses Hands Well 🥇Athletic 🩸NFL Bloodlines 🐃Buffalo Bills Fit/ Solid Rotational at 1 tech or 3 |
On Day 3, the Bills should add speed to the defense and toughness to the trenches. Priority would be to find a Safety or two as well as a corner. McDermott and Beane have a knack for finding gems late into the draft and it would be time for them to go to work on day three. I also would like to see a true, old school LB brought into the mix, for special teams but also, to help match up vs power run teams. Grabbing another bigger WR to add to the mix, a between the tackles RB and maybe even a developmental QB, with similar traits to Josh as a possible long term back up, or potential future trade chip also makes sense if they keep all 11 picks. However, bundling some of those picks could help Beane maneuver the board to fill the roster. Here is how it could look if they keep them all:
4 | Dadrion Taylor-Demerson FS | |
128 | Ht:5103 Wt:197 40:4.41 RAS:8.87 | |
Texas Tech | 🧠High Football IQ 🐈Speed to burn 🙌Great Hands 🤷♂️Just a guy 🐃Buffalo Bills Fit/ Solid Solid Zone Cover Safety who isn't afraid of supporting vs Run. Great Range | |
4 | Tommy Eichenberg LB | |
133 | Ht:6020 Wt:239 40:4.73 | |
Ohio State | 👷♂️Hard Work 🔨Hits like a hammer 🧠High Football IQ 🏈Better football player than athlete 👨✈️Team Captain/Leader 🟢Green Dot ↘Downhill Player 🤷♂️Just a guy 🎭Good vs Run and WEak in Coverage 📉Limited Upside 🐃Buffalo Bills Fit/ Solid run d package rotation/ Special Teams Leader to replace Tyler Matakevich | |
5 | Ray Davis RB | |
144 | Ht:5084 Wt:220 40:4.52 RAS:5.30 | |
Kentucky | 🙌Solid Hands 🦏Power 🏈Better Football Player than Athlete 👴Older Prospect 🐃Short yardage Back who is also a threat catching out of backfield. | |
5 | Jalyx Hunt Edge | |
160 | Ht:6036 Wt:252 40:4.64 RAS:9.18 | |
HCU | 🥇Elite AThlete 💥Explosive Playmaker 📈Unlimited Upside ⏳Needs Time to develop 🎭Better pass rusher than vs Run🔪Sharp Edge Rusher 🧸Faced Weaker Opposition 🍃Thin frame but room to grow 🐃Developmental Situational Pass rusher. Learn from Von | |
5 | Bub Means WR | |
163 | Ht:6010 Wt:212 40:4.43 RAS:9.71 | |
Pittsburgh | 🐂 Size/Speed 🎭Good Ares/Bad Areas 🙌 Great Hands 📈Unlimited Upside 🥩Raw route running 👹Freak Athlete 🐂+Size/Speed ratio 🐃Big body target to add to WR competition | |
6 | Hunter Nourzad IOL | |
189 | Ht:6031 Wt:317 Bench:27 RAS: 8* | |
Penn State | 🦏Power🏋️♂️Strength👷♂️Hard Worker 🎭Better Run Blocker than Protector vs speed🩹Injury history/risk 🐃Developmental C to provide depth. | |
6 | Logan Lee DT | |
200 | Ht:6053 Wt:281 40:5.05 RAS:9.10 | |
Iowa | 🔋Non stop battery 🥋Uses Leverage ↘Down Hill 🃏Versatile 👷♂️Hard worker 🤏Undersized🐃A Versatile DT to plug in and rotate anywhere across the line. Natural athleticism and work ethic to develop into major contributor | |
6 | Joe Milton QB | |
204 | Ht: 6051 Wt:245 40:4.55 Rate:147.26 | |
Tennessee | 💪Strong Arm👹Athletic Freak 🥩Raw🪀Up and Down 👴Older 🐃Developmental QB with similar traits to Josh including rocket arm strength and huge athletic frame. | |
7 | Isaiah Johnson DB | |
248 | Height: 6030 Weight: 205 40: 4.64 | |
Syracuse | 🍊Orange Homer Pick 👨✈️Team Captain 💥Explosive Playmaker ⛷Down Hill Player🐱Cat like instincts 🐇Quick twitch 🃏Versatile 🐃A developmental versatile DB. ST |