Pro Football War Room

2018 NFL Draft - Mock Draft - Buffalo Bills Draft - Rankings

2018 PFWR Big Board

2019 PFWR Rankings  
by Mike Watkins

QB


1.Will Grier, West Virginia(2)

2.Drew Lock, Missouri(2)

3.Kyler Murray, Oklahoma(2)

4.Daniel Jones, Duke(2)

5.Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State(2)

6.Clayton Thorson, Duke(2)

7.Brett Rypien, Boise State(3)

8.Gardner Minshew, Washington State(3)

9.Ryan Finley, NC State(3)

10.Tyree Jackson(UDFA)

  

RB

1.Josh Jacobs, Alabama(Day 1)

2.Darrell Henderson, Memphis(1)

3.David Montgomery, Iowa State(Day 2)

4.Miles Sanders, Penn State(2)

5.Dexter Williams, Notre Dame(2)

6.Justice Hill, Oklahoma State(2)

7.Damien Harris, Alabama(2)

8.Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic(2)

9.Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M(2)

10.Miles Gaskin, Washington(Day 3)

 

WR

1. AJ Brown, Ole Miss(Day 1)

2. DK Metcalf, Ole Miss(1)

3. Kelvin Harmon, NC State(Day 2)

4. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina(2)

5. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma(2)

6. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State(2)

7. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford(2)

8. K’Neal Harry, Arizona State(2)

9. Emanuel Hall, Missouri(2)

10. Parris Campbell(2)

  

TE

1.TJ Hockenson, Iowa(Day 1)

2.Irv Smith, Alabama(1)

3.Noah Fant, Iowa(1)

4.Drew Sample, Washington(Day 2)

5.Jace Sternberger, Texas A&m(2)

6.Dawson Knox, Ole Miss(2)

7.Caleb Wilson, UCLA(2)

8.Josh Oliver, San Jose State(Day 3)

9.Kaden Smith, Stanford(3)

10.Alize Mack, Notre Dame(3)


OT

1.Jonah Williams, Alabama (Day 1)

2.Andre Dillard, Washington State (1)

3.Jawaan Taylor, Florida (1)

4.Dalton Risner, Kansas St (1)

5.Tyrus Howard, Alabama State (Day 2)

6.Kaleb McGary, Washington (2)

7.Cody Ford, Oklahoma (2)

8.Yodny Cajuste, West Virginia (2)

9.Paul Adams, Missouri (2)

10.David Edwards, Wisconsin (Day 3)


IOL

1.Garrett Bradbury, NC State (Day 1)

2.Erik McCoy, Texas A&M (1)

3.Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (Day 2)

4.Chris Lindstrom, Boston College (2)

5.Dru Samia, Oklahoma (2)

6.Connor McGovern, Penn State (2)

7.Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin (2)

8.Michael Jordan, Ohio State(2)

9.Nate Davis, Charlotte (Day 3)

10.Ben Powers, Oklahoma (3)

 

DT

1.Ed Oliver, Houston (Day 1)

2.Quinnen Williams, Alabama (1)

3.Christian Wilkins, Clemson (1)

4.Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame (1)

5.Jefferey Simmons, Mississippi State (1)

6.Dexter Lawrence, Clemson (1)

7.Khalen Saunders, Western Illinois (Day 2)

8.Renell Wren, Arizona State (2)

9.Gerald Willis, Miami (Day 3)

10.Daylon Mack, Texas A&M (3)


  

DE

1.Nick Bosa, Ohio State (Day 1)

2.Josh Allen, Kentucky (1)

3.Montez Sweat, Mississippis State (1)

4.Rashan Gary, Michigan (1)

5.Brian Burns, Florida State (1)

6.Chase Winovich, Michigan (Day 2)

7.Clelin Ferrell, Clemson (2)

8.L.J. Collier, TCU (2)

9.Zach Allen, Boston College (2)

10.Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech (2)

 

LB

1.Devin Bush, Michigan (Day 1)

2.Devin White, LSU (1)

3.Te’von Coney, Notre Dame (Day 2)

4.Mack Wilson, Alabama (2)

5.T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin (2)

6.Germaine Pratt, North Carolina State (2)

7.Terril Hanks, New Mexico State (Day 3)

8.Ben Burr-Kirven, Washington (3)

9.David Long, West Virginia (3)

10.Vosean Joseph, Florida (3)


CB

1.Byron Murphy, Washington (Day 1)

2.Greedy Williams, LSU (1)

3.Deandre Baker, Georgia (1)

4.Julian Love, Notre Dame (1)

5.Rock Ya-Sin, Temple (1)

6.Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt (Day 2)

7.Amani Oruwariye, Penn State (2)

8.Justin Layne, Michigan State (2)

9.Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (2)

10.Lonnie Johnson, Kentucky (2)


S

1.Juan Thornhill, Virginia (Day 1)

2.Nasir Adderly, Delaware (1)

3.Amani Hooker, Iowa (Day 2)

4.Mike Edwards, Kentucky (2)

5.Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida (2)

6.Johnathan Abram (2)

7.Darnell Savage, Maryland (2)

8.Taylor Rapp, Washington (2)

9.Deionte Thompson, Alabama(2)

10.Marquise Blair, Utah (2)


Final Big Board - 4/16/2019

(Photo: Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports)

Top 10 Defense

Michael Watkins

@merk256

4/20/19



DE


1.Nick Bosa, Ohio State (Day 1)

2.Josh Allen, Kentucky (1)

3.Montez Sweat, Mississippis State (1)

4.Rashan Gary, Michigan (1)

5.Brian Burns, Florida State (1)

6.Chase Winovich, Michigan (Day 2)

7.Clelin Ferrell, Clemson (2)

8.L.J. Collier, TCU (2)

9.Zach Allen, Boston College (2)

10.Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech (2)


Thoughts

-It’s a pretty good class overall and it has enough depth to spread into day 3. The top dog from wire to wire has been Nick Bosa and I don’t expect that to change


-I have R.Gary listed here though a lot of people have him as a 3 tech I still like him more as a DE. He is the hardest one to peg as far as where he will land. It could be in the top 10 or it could be in the bottom 10


DT


1.Ed Oliver, Houston (Day 1)

2.Quinnen Williams, Alabama (1)

3.Christian Wilkins, Clemson (1)

4.Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame (1)

5.Jefferey Simmons, Mississippi State (1)

6.Dexter Lawrence, Clemson (1)

7.Khalen Saunders, Western Illinois (Day 2)

8.Renell Wren, Arizona State (2)

9.Gerald Willis, Miami (Day 3)

10.Daylon Mack, Texas A&M (3)


Thoughts

-It’s the most talent I have seen in a DT class. The first 5 would be pushing to be the first DT off the board in any of the previos 5 drafts. That said it’s a very top heavy class in my opinion. If you want one you better take one early or be ready to make a move up to grab one.


-I really like Renell Wren and Khalen Sanders, both have the athletic ability to get off the snap fast and make plays. If you miss on your 3 tech pick on day 1 and want one that can contribute right away making a move on day 2 for one of them would be wise. The drop off after them is vast


LB


1.Devin Bush, Michigan (Day 1)

2.Devin White, LSU (1)

3.Te’von Coney, Notre Dame (Day 2)

4.Mack Wilson, Alabama (2)

5.T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin (2)

6.Germaine Pratt, North Carolina State (2)

7.Terril Hanks, New Mexico State (Day 3)

8.Ben Burr-Kirven, Washington (3)

9.David Long, West Virginia (3)

10.Vosean Joseph, Florida (3)


Thoughts

-Very top heavy group. White and Bush are the two blue chippers and then there is a very big drop off to the next group. It’s a below average class overall


-A name I like on Day 2/3 is TJ Edwards from Wisconsin. He didn’t test off the charts but he is a gamer


CB


1.Byron Murphy, Washington (Day 1)

2.Greedy Williams, LSU (1)

3.Deandre Baker, Georgia (1)

4.Julian Love, Notre Dame (1)

5.Rock Ya-Sin, Temple (1)

6.Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt (Day 2)

7.Amani Oruwariye, Penn State (2)

8.Justin Layne, Michigan State (2)

9.Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (2)

10.Lonnie Johnson, Kentucky (2)


Thoughts

-Very difficult group to peg this year. I think the class has depth but is lacking at the top. If you run a lot of man coverage this is a tough class. The zone teams are likely to be higher on it. I’d call it above average


-This class will be defined by what system the player lands in. Take D.Baker, if he lands on a heavy zone defense we could look back 5 years from now and he’ll be the best CB from this draft. A heavy man team and he’ll probably be on his second team


S


1.Juan Thornhill, Virginia (Day 1)

2.Nasir Adderly, Delaware (1)

3.Amani Hooker, Iowa (Day 2)

4.Mike Edwards, Kentucky (2)

5.Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida (2)

6.Johnathan Abram (2)

7.Darnell Savage, Maryland (2)

8.Taylor Rapp, Washington (2)

9.Deionte Thompson, Alabama(2)

10.Marquise Blair, Utah (2)


Thoughts

-Above avg class, there will be a number of starters selected from it who will have long careers. I think late round 2 and early round 3 will be the wheel house for group


-There is some wide ranging opinions as to whom is the top player but for me its Juan Thorhill and its not close. His instincts and understanding of angles is unmatched in this class

Top 10's Offense 



















Michael Watkins

@merk256

4/19/19


QB


1.Will Grier, West Virginia(2)

2.Drew Lock, Missouri(2)

3.Kyler Murray, Oklahoma(2)

4.Daniel Jones, Duke(2)

5.Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State(2)

6.Clayton Thorson, Duke(2)

7.Brett Rypien, Boise State(3)

8.Gardner Minshew, Washington State(3)

9.Ryan Finley, NC State(3)

10.Tyree Jackson(UDFA)


Thoughts:

-I don’t not have a day 1 grade on any QB in this draft. Someone will definitely emerge from this group but I wouldn’t want to be the GM trying to smoke that out


-Myself and Will Grier’s parents are likely the only ones who have him as the top ranked guy but I’m going to roll with my gut on this one. For 2 years I’ve been a big fan of his and if I had to guess which QB is going to emerge as a capable starter from this class it would be Grier


RB


1.Josh Jacobs, Alabama(Day 1)

2.Darrell Henderson, Memphis(1)

3.David Montgomery, Iowa State(Day 2)

4.Miles Sanders, Penn State(2)

5.Dexter Williams, Notre Dame(2)

6.Justice Hill, Oklahoma State(2)

7.Damien Harris, Alabama(2)

8.Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic(2)

9.Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M(2)

10.Miles Gaskin, Washington(Day 3)


Thoughts:

-I’d rank the overall class as average. It has a pretty solid spread where you can get contributing player into day 3. There is no blue chipper among the group like the previous couple years


-One player I am definitely going to follow in this group is Miles Gaskin. He may not have all the measurable but the kid is a gamer


WR


1. AJ Brown, Ole Miss(Day 1)

2. DK Metcalf, Ole Miss(1)

3. Kelvin Harmon, NC State(Day 2)

4. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina(2)

5. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma(2)

6. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State(2)

7. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford(2)

8. K’Neal Harry, Arizona State(2)

9. Emanuel Hall, Missouri(2)

10. Parris Campbell(2)


Thoughts:

-Very Deep class, I could go another 7-10 players before I get to a day 3 grade. If you need to boost your WR core and do not want to use a round 1 pick on one this is the draft for you


-A WR whom I don’t have listed here but will make a GM look very smart on day 3 is Tyre Brady from Marshall


TE


1.TJ Hockenson, Iowa(Day 1)

2.Irv Smith, Alabama(1)

3.Noah Fant, Iowa(1)

4.Drew Sample, Washington(Day 2)

5.Jace Sternberger, Texas A&m(2)

6.Dawson Knox, Ole Miss(2)

7.Caleb Wilson, UCLA(2)

8.Josh Oliver, San Jose State(Day 3)

9.Kaden Smith, Stanford(3)

10.Alize Mack, Notre Dame(3)


Thoughts:

-I’d call it a good group overall that is slightly top heavy. The ranking really depends on what you value in a TE. I could definitely see Noah Fant being higher on some boards because he is the best vertical threat of the group


-I’ll Go with Hockenson as the top TE because I do still value blocking in the position


OT


1.Jonah Williams, Alabama (Day 1)

2.Andre Dillard, Washington State (1)

3.Jawaan Taylor, Florida (1)

4.Dalton Risner, Kansas St (1)

5.Tyrus Howard, Alabama State (Day 2)

6.Kaleb McGary, Washington (2)

7.Cody Ford, Oklahoma (2)

8.Yodny Cajuste, West Virginia (2)

9.Paul Adams, Missouri (2)

10.David Edwards, Wisconsin (Day 3)


Thoughts

-I would say it’s an above avg class. It has some first rounders and some decent depth. I don’t think there is a plug and play top 5 blue chip franchise LT from day 1 in the group but there doesn’t need to be.


-Some have moved away from J.Williams as the top OT on the board but I have not. I still think he is the top dog and I think he can play LT in the NFL. He does have the added bonus in that he can also likely play 4 out of the 5 OL positions at an above average level at minimum. That said I only have him slightly above Andre Dillard who if he develops the rest of his game could be the best OT from this class 5 years down the road


IOL


1.Garrett Bradbury, NC State (Day 1)

2.Erik McCoy, Texas A&M (1)

3.Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (Day 2)

4.Chris Lindstrom, Boston College (2)

5.Dru Samia, Oklahoma (2)

6.Connor McGovern, Penn State (2)

7.Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin (2)

8.Michael Jordan, Ohio State(2)

9.Nate Davis, Charlotte (Day 3)

10.Ben Powers, Oklahoma (3)


Thoughts

-Good overall class, especially if you are looking to spend a first round pick on a da1 starter at Center. You have two in this draft that should be able to come in and start from the get go and be there for the next decade.


-The OG group is above average and the wheel house for them like most years will be mid day 2 to early day 3.


Early Look Preseason Top 5: DT


Mike Watkins

@merk256

6/29/18

 

 





DT


1.Ed Oliver, Houston

2.Christian Wilkins, Clemson

3.Rashan Gary, Michigan

4.Raekwon Davis, Alabama

5.Jeffrey Simmons, Mississippi State

 

Thoughts


-In a word, Loaded. Going into the season have 1st to fringe 1st round grades on 9 DT’s that will or might be in the 2019 draft class. That is an insane amount of talent for any positions let alone the DT position

 

-The Clear cut top player is Ed Oliver out of Houston. He would have been a top 5 pick this year and he will not get out of the top 5 this year. He is has a rare skill set for a DT and in a lot of ways reminds people of W.Sapp and A.Donald. As far as DT’s go those are the past and current pinnacles that every DT wants to be compared too


-Some people have Soured on Wilkins, I have not. He is still a first round talent and the player I would compare him to is Kyle Williams. Very good against the pass and the run. He can be a rock and a leader in the middle of your defense for a decade


-Simmons is more of a projection at this point. Athletically he is very gifted. Of the top 5 though I would not be surprised if he bailed on the 2019 draft. Doing so would allow him to be the top player at the position for 2020. That said I still think he’s a top 25 pick this year


-A player who could rise that is not currently in the top 5 is J.Tillary from Notre Dame. A very well rounded DT who makes a lot of impact even if it doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. He is a Marcus Stroud clone

Early Look Preseason Top 5: QB

Mike Watkins

@merk256

6/26/18

 







QB


1.Justin Herbert, Oregon

2.Will Grier, West Virginia

3.Clayton Thorson, Northwestern

4.Ryan Finley, N.C. State

5.Drew Lock, Missouri


Thoughts

-There will definitely be a lot of jockeying for position throughout the year. Much like this year’s class each player has their flaws and there is not a clear cut number one among them as of today. That said this is not going to be a down year for QB’s. That narrative has been false for a while now and there is a lot more talent in the class then it has been given credit for


-Drew Lock is the favorite for a lot of people right now but I’m not as sold on him as others. I think he needs a lot of work on his anticipation.


-Herbert flew under the radar for a lot of the year being on the West Coast and Oregon building back up their program. I liked a lot of what I saw though and of the top 5 if he puts it together and keeps progressing I think he’ll be the first one off the board. If I’m a betting man right now I would bet that Herbert is the top overall selection in the 2019 draft


-One player not listed that people should keep an eye on is S.Patterson from Michigan. The Ole Miss transfer has a lot of the traits you look for and Harbaugh has a decent track record of getting the most out of his QB’s. He could make a giant leap up boards


-Yes I know I have Will Grier higher than most, I’m not backing off it, I think he’s a gamer and Baker Mayfield’ish

5 and A Final: Post Minicamp

Mike Watkins

@merk256

6/20/18

 

 

 

1.The QB Competition: The Bills are doing the right thing with Josh Allen in that they are starting with the base principles of the mechanics of being a QB and building up from there. Most teams likely wouldn’t do that. That plan though is going to take time. The Bills get lucky with the schedule as far as QB development goes. With 5 of the first 7 games on the road I would much rather have McCarron/Peterman navigate that then a young Josh Allen. Then if they decide to make a shift say at the halfway point you have the advantage of a young QB playing home games in 5 of the last 8. This plan however needs to get scrapped if Josh Allen clearly wins the job in camp. I don’t think there is any right way or wrong way to bring a rookie QB into the NFL. It’s a case by case basis. You let the player tell you through his play. If he is clearly the best of the 3 and his teammates see it, you are doing him and the team an injustice by not starting him

 

 

2.DL: The Bills, ever since the Mario Williams signing, have made the DL an area where the team can hang its hat on. It had some down years here and there but I would expect a resurgence this year. While a lot of the national media is paying attention to the offense and its issues the Bills put together a deep talented DL with players that fit together. They have also set up a situation where they can come at opposing teams in waves. The most striking difference should be in the middle of the DL. At the minimum they have acquired players that will occupy opposing IOL and allow the edge DL and LB’s to make plays. Not allowing QB’s to step up into the pocket is big against Tom Brady but any elite QB. This season will likely be largely determined by the performance of this specific unit while the Bills sort out the QB situation

 

 

3.The OL: This is likely to be an issue especially early. Dawkins looks like he’s a rock at LT but the other 4 spots are going to be questions marks across the board. The Bills will have to hope that at least two of their young players step up to the plate and take advantage of the opportunity. Ideally the OL combination I’m rooting for is from left to right Dawkins, Teller, Groy, Miller, McDermott

 

 

4.The Secondary: Expect the secondary to be good again and actually be better. Losing EJ Gaines hurts a little bit but the Bills have assembled a more complete group this year. V.Davis gives the Bills a good CB to start on the other side of White as well as a better option to match up against bigger more physical WR’s. P.Gaines much like EJ Gaines last year finds himself in a defense that is a far better fit for his skill set then his previous defense. Johnson and Borders will provide solid depth and I expect a good camp battle between R.Carter and L.Wallace to round out the group

 

 

5.WR questions: So the Bills have a WR group that many label the worst in the NFL. I’d say that is a bit of a stretch but I can see why most are concerned about the group. I’m not as worried as many. The biggest issue I see with the group is the same issue I had last year, there is no legit vertical threat on the current roster. I think the Bills will be keeping their eyes open waiting for some type of burner to come across the waiver wire or maybe look for an in Training Camp trade. Looking on the roster they do have Benjamin and while he is not a true number one in the mold of AJ Green or Julio Jones he is arguable just a notch below them and opposing defenses have to account for him. Kerley is a legitimate slot WR and I think will be one of the better FA additions this year. Then the Bills have Zay Jones. He had an up and down year last year but the skill set is there to be a number 2 WR. This is where you have to trust your coaching to be able to get that out of him. There has to be some development process in Buffalo or it will be near impossible to get any type of roster consistency.

 

 

A Final: A lot of times teams play a lot of lip service to their first round picks during these spring camps. “Everyone is making progress”, “He’s farther along than we thought”, and “He’s making an impression”. Every once and awhile though you get a player where the coaches and more importantly the vets on the team dig a little deeper with the praise and it doesn’t seem like encouraging lip service. I sensed that with Tre White last year and I am again seeing it with T.Edmunds this year. I think Bills fans, if they were not excited already, should start to get excited about the potential Edmunds has in this defense. It’s been a bit of a revolving door in the Bills LB corps for a while now trying to unearth a sideline to sideline playmaking LB. They may have finally have found their guy in Edmunds